United Kingdom general election, 2015 (Scotland)

United Kingdom general election, 2015

7 May 2015 (2015-05-07)

All 59 Scottish seats to the House of Commons Turnout 71.1%   First party Second party   Leader Nicola Sturgeon Ed Miliband Party SNP Labour Leader since 14 November 2014 25 September 2010 Leader's seat Did not stand Standing in England Last election 6 seats, 19.9% 41 seats, 42.0% Seats before 6 41 Seats won 56 1 Seat change 50 40 Popular vote 1,454,436 707,147 Percentage 50.0% 24.3% Swing 30.1% 17.7%   Third party Fourth party   Leader David Cameron Nick Clegg Party Conservative Liberal Democrat Leader since 6 December 2005 18 December 2007 Leader's seat Standing in England Standing in England Last election 1 seat, 16.7% 11 seats, 18.9% Seats before 1 11 Seats won 1 1 Seat change 10 Popular vote 434,097 219,675 Percentage 14.9% 7.5% Swing 1.8% 11.4%

Colours on map indicate winning party for each constituency.

Prime Minister before election David Cameron Conservative Subsequent Prime Minister David Cameron Conservative

The 2015 United Kingdom general election in Scotland was held on 7 May 2015 and all 59 seats were contested under the First past the post electoral system. Unlike the 2010 General Election, where no seats changed party, the Scottish National Party (SNP) managed to win all but three seats in Scotland in an unprecedented landslide gaining a total of fifty-six seats and also become the first party in sixty years to win 50% of the Scottish vote.^[1][2] It saw the Labour Party suffer its worst ever election defeat within Scotland losing 40 of the 41 seats they were defending, including the seats of Scottish Labour Party leader Jim Murphy and also the then Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander. The Liberal Democrats lost ten of the eleven seats they were defending with the then Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander and former leader Charles Kennedy also losing their seats. The election also saw the worst performance by the Conservative Party which received its lowest share of the vote since its creation in 1965, although it retained the one seat that it previously held.^[3] In all, 50 of the 59 seats changed party, 49 of them being won by first-time MPs.

The general election in Scotland was fought in the aftermath of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, in which 1,617,989 voters (44.7%) backed independence while 2,001,926 (55.3%) did not. The referendum saw a record turnout of 84.59%, the "highest turnout in any nationwide ballot in Scotland since the advent of the mass franchise after the First World War". There was speculation as to whether this would significantly affect the turnout in the general election.^[4][5] An immediate consequence of the referendum was a massive rise in the membership of the pro-independence parties, with the SNP in particular adding 60,000 to its membership to reach over 85,000 within two months of the referendum.^[6]

Political context

Since 2005, the Scottish National Party had come first in the 2007 Scottish Parliament Election as well as the 2009 European Election, although the party won the Glasgow East by-election in 2008, which was one of the safest Labour seats in the UK, by the time of the 2010 UK election and even with an increase of 2.3% in the vote, it only managed to retain the seats it won in the 2005 election. A year later in the 2011 Scottish parliament elections the SNP became the first majority government since the opening of Holyrood, a remarkable feat as the mixed member proportional representation system used to elect MSPs makes the acquisition of a one-party majority challenging. The SNP gained thirty two constituencies, twenty two from the Scottish Labour Party, nine from the Scottish Liberal Democrats and one from the Scottish Conservatives. Such was the scale of their gains that, of the 73 constituencies in Scotland, only 20 were represented by MSPs of other political parties in 2011.

The SNP's majority in the Scottish Parliament allowed it to legislate for a referendum on Scottish independence. This was held in 2014, and the proposal for independence was defeated by 10.6 percentage points. In spite of this, the campaign in favour of independence made a set of significant in roads across the central belt of Scotland, a region which has traditionally had a strong affiliation with the Labour Party. The Yes campaign took 44.7% of the vote in Scotland on a high turnout of 84.6%: well beyond the SNP's 19.9% vote share at the 2010 UK general election. This took form at the 2015 UK general election with a saturation of the SNP vote in areas which had a higher "Yes" vote at the 2014 Scottish independence referendum.

The Scottish Labour Party had held the majority of seats in Scotland in every general election since the 1960s. This is usually attributed to the North-South divide in British politics, where Scotland and the North of England tend to return mostly Labour MP's whereas the South of England tends to vote mostly for the Conservatives. Many prominent government officials represented Scottish constituencies, such as the Prime Minister Gordon Brown and the Chancellor Alistair Darling. In the 2010 election, the Labour Party in Scotland increased its share of the vote by 2.5% and re-gained the Glasgow East and Dunfermline and West Fife constituencies giving them 41 out of 59 seats in Scotland. At the 2011 Scottish Parliament election Labour lost out to the SNP across much of the central belt of Scotland, holding on to 15 out of 73 constituency seats in Scotland.

In 2015 Labour lost 40 of its 41 Scottish constituencies at the British Parliament, with Edinburgh South becoming the only constituency in Scotland to have a Labour MP after the election. The party lost out heavily to the SNP in working class areas around central Scotland, with Scottish Labour's safest constituency (Glasgow North East) returning the largest swing in the election at 39.3% from Labour to SNP. The party performed best in its more affluent constituencies, with Scottish Labour's leader Jim Murphy missing out in his former constituency of East Renfrewshire by just 6.6% of the vote. Labour's next closest constituency result came in Edinburgh North and Leith, where the missed out to they SNP by 9.6% of the vote, and in East Lothian, where the SNP polled ahead of Labour by 11.5% of the vote.

The Scottish Liberal Democrats lost 10 of its 11 Westminster constituencies from 2010, with its safest constituency in Great Britain - Orkney and Shetland - becoming the only Liberal Democrat constituency in Scotland. They marginally lost out to the SNP in East Dunbartonshire, where former Lib Dem MP Jo Swinson lost out to the SNP by 4% of the vote. Among those to lose their constituency at the election were former Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy and the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander. The Liberal Democrats came third in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, constituencies which they had held in the previous election.

The Scottish Conservative Party has not held a majority of Scottish seats in a general election since 1955 and it lost all eleven of its seats in the election of 1997. Since 2001, the party has only held one Westminster seat in Scotland. In 2005, following the re-organisation of Scottish constituencies, that seat was Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, a mostly rural constituency near the Scottish borders. In 2010 its share of the vote in Scotland increased by roughly 0.9% and it retained the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, as its only Scottish constituency. It had been reported the party could gain Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk,^[7] a seat which they lost out on to the Scottish National Party by 0.6% of the vote.

Minor parties such as the UK Independence Party and the Scottish Green Party announced that they would contest more Scottish seats than they did in the 2010 election. The United Kingdom Independence Party targeted the sole Conservative seat in Scotland, as well as standing candidates in several others. The British National Party also announced its intention to contest more seats than in 2010, though in the event did not stand a single candidate in a Scottish constituency.^[8][9] The Scottish Socialist Party stood in four constituencies.^[10]

The prospect of an electoral alliance between pro-independence parties—specifically the SNP, the Scottish Greens, and the Scottish Socialist Party—was raised after the referendum and supported by elected SNP politicians,^[11] but played down by Green co-convenor Patrick Harvie, who said party members did not want their "distinctive Green perspective" to be lost.^[12] The SSP supported negotiations for a formal alliance until late in 2014.^[13][14]

Campaign events

• 31 March: The first official day of the election campaign got under way, with the Scottish Greens becoming the first party to launch their manifesto.^[15][16]
• 7 April: First TV debate was broadcast on STV^[17]
• 8 April: Second TV debate was broadcast on BBC Scotland, with UKIP and the Scottish Greens included.
• 10 April: Ed Milliband visits Edinburgh, claiming the SNP's aim to have full control of tax in Scotland would create a £7.6bn financial "black hole".^[18][19]
• 12 April: Third TV debate was broadcast on BBC Scotland, between the four main parties. The debate was criticised, with many of the public claiming it was a "Rammy".^[20][21]
• 21 April: Sir John Major entered into the row, and repeated claims by David Cameron that an Labour-SNP government would be a "recipe for mayhem" and entering blackmail.^[22] A number of former Conservative minsters entered into the debate claiming deep unease about the rhetoric. Lord Tebbit described Cameron's repeated warnings about the SNP as "puzzling" and "pointless", and might even push Scots to vote tactically for Labour.^[23] Lord Forsyth claimed it was playing a "short term and dangerous game" which could further threaten the union.^[24][25][26] Ed Miliband rejected the claims, while Nicola Sturgeon labelled Sir John's comments as "Silly over the top and an affront to democracy".^[27]
• 4 May: Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy and comedian Eddie Izzard were heckled by opponents while campaigning in Glasgow city centre, with the scene descending into scuffles. SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon condemned the scenes but said they had "nothing to do with the SNP".^{[28][29][30][31]} The following day the SNP placed two members under "administrative suspension".^[32][33]

Scottish leaders' debates

As in 2010, there were televised debates ahead of the election, featuring the Scottish leaders of the three main UK parties as well as the leader of the SNP.^[34] The first debate is to be broadcast on STV on 7 April. The second debates was held on BBC One Scotland on 8 April with additional representatives from the Scottish Greens and UKIP. A follow up date a few days later took place on Sunday Politics Scotland, The debate was criticised, with many of the public claiming it was a "shambles".^[20][21] The Last debate took place on 3 May.^{[35][36] [37]}

The leaders from each of the main parties are:

• Scottish Labour Party - Jim Murphy
• Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party - Ruth Davidson
• Scottish Liberal Democrats - Willie Rennie
• Scottish National Party - Nicola Sturgeon

Opinion polling

Results

^[38]

Party		Seats	Seats change	Seats contested	Votes	Votes, of total (%)	Change (%)
	SNP	56	50	59	1,454,436	50.0	30.1
	Labour	1	−40	59*	707,147	24.3	17.7
	Conservative	1	0	59	434,097	14.9	1.8
	Liberal Democrat	1	−10	59	219,675	7.5	11.3
	UKIP	0	0	41	47,078	1.6	0.9
	Scottish Green	0	0	32	39,205	1.3	0.7
	CISTA	0	0	8	1,807	0.1	N/A
	TUSC	0	0	10	1,720	0.1	0.0
	Scottish Christian	0	0	2	1,467	0.1	0.1
	Scottish Socialist	0	0	4	895	0.0	0.1
	National Front	0	0	2	289	0.0	N/A
		Others	0	0	11	2,649	0.1
Turnout					2,910,465	71.1

The Labour Party withdrew support from its candidate in Banff and Buchan before polling day,^[39] but he appeared as Labour on the ballot papers and is therefore included in the Labour totals.

The totals for TUSC include one candidate standing jointly for Left Unity and TUSC. Left Unity did not stand any other candidates in Scottish constituencies.

"Others" include one candidate each for Socialist Equality Party and the Scottish Communist Party, and 9 independents. No single constituency was contested by more than one of these "others". The highest support for an "other" candidate was 503 votes (1.0%) for Claire Muir (Independent) in West Dunbartonshire.

Votes summary

List of Constituencies by Party

Target seats

Labour Party

Liberal Democrats

Scottish National Party

Conservative Party

Individual MPs

Re-elected MPs

Of the 59 sitting MPs at the dissolution of Parliament, 52 stood for re-election, but only 9 were successful:

Other notable MPs

Alex Salmond (SNP) won Gordon, making him the only former Scottish MP in this election to return to Parliament following a break. He previously served as MP for Banff and Buchan from 1987 to 2010, and therefore has the longest total service of any current Scottish MP.

Mhairi Black (SNP) won Paisley and Renfrewshire South at the age of 20, making her the youngest MP since the Reform Act 1832.

References

Elections and referendums in Scotland
Scottish elections	Pre-1707 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016 Next
UK elections	1801 co-option 1802 1806 1807 1812 1818 1820 1826 1830 1831 1832 1835 1837 1841 1847 1852 1857 1859 1865 1868 1874 1880 1885 1886 1892 1895 1900 1906 1910 (Jan) 1910 (Dec) 1918 1922 1923 1924 1929 1931 1935 1945 1950 1951 1955 1959 1964 1966 1970 1974 (Feb) 1974 (Oct) 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015
Local elections	1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1977 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1995 1999 2003 2007 2012 2017
Referendums	1979 1997 2014
Local referendums	Scottish licensing referendums Strathclyde (water) 1994 Edinburgh (congestion charge) 2005
See also: Elections in the Kingdom of Scotland (Pre-1707) Great Britain (1707–1800) United Kingdom Politics of Scotland