The Republicans (France) presidential primary, 2016

The Republicans presidential primary, 2016
France
20–27 November 2016[1]
 
Candidate François Fillon Alain Juppé
Party LR LR
Popular vote 2,919,874 1,471,898
Percentage 66.5% 33.5%
Previous UMP nominee

Nicolas Sarkozy

 LR nominee

François Fillon

The Republicans held a presidential primary election, officially called the open primary of the right and centre (French: primaire ouverte de la droite et du centre), to select a candidate for the 2017 French presidential election. It took place on 20 November 2016, with a runoff on 27 November since no candidate obtained at least 50% of the vote in the first round.[1] It was the first time an open primary had been held for The Republicans or its predecessors.[2]

Voting procedures

Ballot papers used in the first round

Conditions

Unlike previous Union for a Popular Movement primaries, this was the first primary to be open to the general public.[2] The first round of voting took place on 20 November 2016. A runoff was held on 27 November after no candidate obtained at least 50% of the vote in the first round.[1]

Candidates

Candidates had to obtain the support of 20 MPs, 2,500 party members and 250 elected representatives to participate.[3] Seven candidates were accepted by the High Authority:[4]

Validated candidates

Name, age Details and notes
Jean-François Copé[1] (52)

Copé announced his candidacy on 14 February 2016 at 20:00 on France 2 – while Nicolas Sarkozy was speaking on TF1 – a few weeks after the release of his book The French Start. After nearly 18 months of media silence, Copé said he was "ready" to return to center stage. Copé was quoted on France 2 as "being very hypocritical to delay unnecessarily", even when a judge's decision on the "sad Bygmalion case" arrived the previous Monday. Copé had been placed under attended witness status and thus escaped indictment.

François Fillon[5] (62)

Fillon announced his candidacy in April 2015 by declaring that he is "a candidate to bring a project of rupture and progress around an ambition to make France the first European power in ten years". He announced in January 2016 that he would leave politics if he fails to win the primary. Fillon has also committed, as has Alain Juppé, to serve only one term if he is elected President in 2017.

Alain Juppé[6] (70)

Juppé announced his intention to contest the 2016 Republicans (formerly UMP) internal election, which will decide who will be the candidate of the right-wing for the 2017 presidential election, on 20 August 2014. The most popular politician in France, he is described by The Daily Telegraph as "a consensual conservative seen as less divisive than Nicolas Sarkozy".[7][8]

Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet[1][2] (42)

Kosciusko-Morizet declared her candidacy on 8 March 2016, on the occasion of the International Women's Day, stating that "I think we can finally change politics. I am a candidate to give everyone, every French person, control of their life."

Bruno Le Maire[1][2] (46)

Le Maire officially declared his candidacy at a public meeting in Vesoul on 23 February 2016. "My decision is simple, strong, unwavering. Yes, I am a candidate for president," he said on stage. Le Maire had earlier left little doubt about his participation in the primary. "If I told you that I was not getting ready for the primary, I would be lying. And I do not like to lie," he had said on RTL 4 in January. In the wake of his candidacy, Bruno Le Maire has also released a book about his vision of France entitled Do Not Resign. He already enjoyed broad support, including that of Michel Barnier and Yves Jégo, even as the UDI had not yet decided on its participation in the primary.

Jean-Frédéric Poisson[1] (52)

As head of the Christian Democratic Party, he will be their candidate in the centre-right's 2016 primary.

Nicolas Sarkozy (61)

Sarkozy announced his intention to contest the primary on 22 August 2016.[9]

Withdrawn candidates

Opinion polls

First round

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample size
Fillon
UMP/LR		 Juppé
UMP/LR		 Kosciusko-Morizet
UMP/LR		 Le Maire
UMP/LR		 Sarkozy
UMP/LR		 Others/Undecided
Le Parisien/i-Télé-CQFD 5–6 Jun 2014 988 13% 19% – – 28% 40%
Ifop 13–16 Apr 2015 704 5% 33% – 12% 42% 8%
Ifop 4–9 Jun 2015 1,879 7% 42% – 13% 33% 5%
Ipsos 25–31 Aug 2015 519 11% 40% – 11% 34% 4%
Ifop 3–4 Sep 2015 1,079 9% 30% 3% – 21% 37%
Ifop 25 Sep–9 Oct 2015 5,220 8% 37% 2% 6% 37% 10%
BVA/Presse Régionale 6–15 Oct 2015 11,244 8% 31% 2% 11% 38% 10%
Ifop 9 Oct-16 Nov 2015 5,274 9% 35% 2% 9% 34% 11%
Opinion Way 26 Oct–17 Nov 2015 400 21% 29% – 10% 11% 29%
Ifop 16 Dec 2015–7 Jan 2016 5,989 12% 38% 4% 12% 29% 5%
Ifop 11-22 Jan 2016 4,974 12% 41% 2% 10% 30% 5%
Ipsos-Sopra Steria 22-31 Jan 2016 1,333 9% 44% 2% 11% 32% 2%
BVA/Orange et iTélé 11-12 Feb 2016 1,053 11% 47% 9% 10% 11% 12%
Ifop 1-15 Feb 2016 4,967 11% 39% 3% 11% 32% 7%
Elabe/BFMTV 16 Feb-16 Mar 2016 5,001 11% 41% 4% 13% 23% 8%
Odoxa/Le Parisien 18 Feb-10 Mar 2016 4,036 9% 41% 3% 16% 23% 8%
Ifop 23 Feb-18 Mar 2016 8,090 8% 38% 3% 16% 27% 8%
Ifop 29 Mar-14 Apr 2016 5,775 15% 37% 3% 12% 26% 7%
Odoxa/Le Parisien 17 Mar-29 Apr 2016 1,660 9% 41% 4% 15% 24% 7%
Ifop 28 Apr-20 May 2016 8,604 12% 35% 4% 13% 27% 9%
Opinion Way 19–23 May 2016 808 13% 39% 3% 13% 27% 5%
Odoxa 9 Jun 2016 1,033 9% 28% – 7% 54% 2%
Ifop 25 May–17 Jun 2016 1,037 11% 35% 4% 13% 28% 9%
Ipsos 17–26 Jun 2016 1,234 9% 38% 2% 16% 30% 5%
Elabe 17 May–29 Jun 2016 624 11% 39% 2% 12% 29% 7%
Harris Interactive 12-14 Sept 2016 563 10% 37% 3% 9% 37% 4%
Ipsos 9–18 Sept 2016 1,216 10% 37% 4% 13% 33% 3%
Ifop 22 Aug–5 Sept 2016 620 10% 35% 4% 10% 33% 8%
BVA 13–20 Sept 2016 774 11% 38% 4% 11% 34% 2%
Ifop 9–26 Sept 2016 527 12% 35% 4% 13% 31% 5%
Kantar Sofres 21-26 Sept 2016 561 8% 39% 4% 13% 33% 3%
Harris Interactive 3–5 Oct 2016 651 12% 39% 3% 8% 35% 3%
Odoxa 1 Sept–6 Oct 2016 680 11% 39% 4.5% 12% 31% 2.5%
Kantar Sofres 30 Sept–6 Oct 2016 586 11% 42% 4% 11% 28% 4%
Odoxa 10–20 Oct 2016 621 11% 43% 4% 13% 26% 3%
Harris Interactive 7–9 Nov 2016 975 17% 39% 4% 7% 31% 2%
Kantar Sofres 7–10 Nov 2016 714 18% 36% 4% 9% 30% 3%
Odoxa 9–11 Nov 2016 554 20% 36% 5% 8% 26% 5%
BVA 3–13 Nov 2016 928 18% 37% 4% 9% 29% 3%
Ipsos Sopra-Steria 8–13 Nov 2016 1,337 22% 36% 3% 7% 29% 3%
Ifop 31 Oct–14 Nov 2016 647 20% 33% 3% 8% 30% 6%
Elabe 9–15 Nov 2016 680 21% 34% 5% 7% 30% 3%
Opinion Way 13–15 Nov 2016 828 25% 33% 4% 9% 25% 4%
Ifop 10–17 Nov 2016 744 27% 31% 2% 7% 30% 3%
Ipsos 18 Nov 2016 807 30% 29% 3.5% 5% 29% 3.5%
First round results 20 November 2016 – 44.1% 28.6% 2.6% 2.4% 20.7% 1.8%

Second round

Polls conducted prior to the first round

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample size
Juppé
LR		 Fillon
LR		 Undecided
Odoxa/Le Parisien 17 Mar-29 Apr 2016 1,660 72% 28% –
Opinion Way 19–23 May 2016 808 66% 34% –

Polls conducted after the first round

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample size
Juppé
LR		 Fillon
LR		 Undecided
Opinon Way 20 Nov 2016 3,095 44% 56% –
Ifop-Fiducial 21-23 Nov 2016 6,901 35% 65% –
Second round results 27 November 2016 – 33.5% 66.5% –

Hypothetical Polling

Results

Most voted candidate by department in the first round:
  François Fillon
  Alain Juppé
  Nicolas Sarkozy
Most voted candidate by department in the second round:
  François Fillon
  Alain Juppé

In the first round of the primary on November 20, Fillon won an upset victory with 44% of the vote, while Juppé - long held by most opinion polls as the favorite to win the nomination - came in a distant second with 29%.[10][11] Sarkozy, who was projected to come in second behind Juppé, was eliminated with just under 21% of the vote. In his concession speech, Sarkozy endorsed Fillon and vowed to "embark on a life with more private passions and fewer public passions."[12] This led to some media outlets declaring that "Sarkozy's political career [had] been effectively ended."[13]

In the runoff round, Fillon won by an even larger margin with nearly twice as many votes as Juppé (66.5% to 33.5%). Of the five departments won by Sarkozy in the first round, all but one switched to Fillon in the runoff. Similarly, of the thirteen departments that originally voted for Juppé, eight switched to Fillon in the second round.

 Summary of The Republicans 20 and 27 November 2016 presidential primary
Candidates Parties 1st round 2nd round
Votes % Votes %
François Fillon The Republicans LR 1,890,266 44.1% 2,919,874 66.5%
Alain Juppé The Republicans LR 1,224,855 28.6% 1,471,898 33.5%
Nicolas Sarkozy The Republicans LR 886,137 20.7%
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet The Republicans LR 109,655 2.6%
Bruno Le Maire The Republicans LR 102,168 2.4%
Jean-Frédéric Poisson Christian Democratic Party PCD 62,346 1.5%
Jean-François Copé The Republicans LR 12,787 0.3%
Total 4,288,214 100% 4,391,772 100%
Valid votes 4,288,214 99.8% 4,391,772 99.7%
Spoilt and null votes 9,883 0.2% 13,040 0.3%
Total 4,298,097 100% 4,404,812 100%
Table of results ordered by number of votes received in first round. Official results by High Authority.

Source: First round result · Second round result

See also

References

    1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "Primaire Les Républicains 2016 : résultat favorable à Juppé dans les sondages". L'Internaute/La Rédaction. 26 January 2016. Retrieved 29 January 2016.
    2. 1 2 3 4 Vinocur, Nicholas (11 January 2016). "Big fight for the French Right". Politico Europe. Retrieved 11 January 2016.
    3. ↑ Lorimer, Marta (1 June 2016). "The 2017 French presidential election: The race has started… and so far it has more candidates than voters". LSE. Retrieved 9 June 2016.
    4. ↑ "Haute Autorité de la Primaire. Décision – 21 septembre 2016 (HAP 2016-12 D), Liste des candidats à la primaire" (PDF) (in French). 21 September 2016. Retrieved 1 December 2016.
    5. ↑ "Primaire de l'UMP : Fillon sera candidat "quoi qu'il arrive"". Le Monde. May 9, 2013. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
    6. ↑ Inti Laundaro (August 20, 2014). "Alain Juppé Declares Intention to Seek French Presidency in 2017". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
    7. ↑ "Ex-PM Juppé announces bid for 2017". France24. Retrieved 27 June 2015.
    8. ↑ "Marion Maréchal-Le Pen: the new wonder-girl of France's far-right". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 2 January 2016.
    9. ↑ "Nicolas Sarkozy declares candidacy for French presidential election". The Guardian. Retrieved 22 August 2016.
    10. ↑ Henry Samuel (November 20, 2016). "Nicolas Sarkozy crashes out of French Right-wing primaries as Thatcherite Francois Fillon takes surprise lead". The Telegraph. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
    11. ↑ William Horobin (November 20, 2016). "Nicolas Sarkozy, in Upset, Is Knocked Out of Race for French Presidency". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved November 21, 2016.
    12. ↑ "France Sarkozy: Ex-president exits after defeat". BBC. November 21, 2016. Retrieved November 21, 2016.
    13. ↑ Angelique Chrisafis (November 20, 2016). "Sarkozy defeated in primary for French right's presidential candidate". The Guardian. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
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