United States Senate elections, 2014

United States Senate elections, 2014
United States Senate
November 4, 2014
33 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate and 3 mid-term special elections
51 seats needed for a majority
  Majority party Minority party
 
Leader Mitch McConnell Harry Reid
Party Republican Democratic
Leader since January 3, 2007 January 3, 2005
Leader's seat Kentucky Nevada
Seats before 45 53
Seats won 24 12
Seats after 54 44
Seat change Increase 9 Decrease 9
Popular vote 24,631,488 20,875,493
Percentage 51.7% 43.8%
Swing Increase 9.6% Decrease 9.9%
Seats up 15 21
  Third party
 
Party Independent
Seats before 2[Note 1]
Seats won 0
Seats after 2[Note 1]
Seat change Steady
Seats up 0

     Democratic hold      Republican hold      Republican gain

Line through state means both Senate seats were up for election.

  1. 1 2 Both Independents caucus with the Democrats.
Majority Leader before election

Harry Reid
Democratic

 Elected Majority Leader

Mitch McConnell
Republican

Elections to the United States Senate were a part of the elections held in the United States on November 4, 2014 (and in some areas for a period of time ending November 4, 2014). 33 Class 2 seats in the 100-member United States Senate were up for election, in addition to three Class 3 seats due to expire on January 3, 2017. The candidates winning the regular elections will serve six-year terms from January 3, 2015 to January 3, 2021. The elections marked 100 years of direct elections of U.S. Senators. Twenty-one of the open seats were held by the Democratic Party, while fifteen were held by the Republican Party.

The Republicans regained the majority of the Senate in the 114th Congress, which started in January 2015; the Republicans had not controlled the Senate since January 2007. They had needed a net gain of at least six seats to obtain a majority. They successfully held all of their seats, and gained nine Democratic-held seats. Five incumbent Democratic senators were unseated: Mark Begich of Alaska, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, Mark Udall of Colorado, and Mark Pryor of Arkansas. Polls and other factors had led forecasters to predict that the Republicans would win several seats, with most predicting that the party was likely but not certain to win at least the six seats necessary to take control of the Senate.

This was the second consecutive election held in a president's sixth year where control of the Senate changed hands. This was also the first time that the Democrats lost control of the Senate in a sixth-year midterm since 1918. With a total net gain of 9 seats, the Republicans made the largest Senate gain by any party since 1980, and the largest Senate gain in a midterm election since 1958. This is also the first election since 1980 in which more than two incumbent Democratic Senators were defeated by their Republican challengers.

Overview

In order to have a majority, the Republicans were required to attain at least 51 seats in the Senate. The Democrats would have been able to retain a majority with 48 seats (assuming the two Independents continued to caucus with them) because, in event of a tie vote, Vice President Joe Biden becomes the tie-breaker. From 1915 to 2013, control of the U.S. Senate flipped in 10 of 50 cycles, or 20% of the time.[1]

The Republican Party had lost ground in the 2012 elections, leading to an internal fight among the Republican leadership over the best strategies and tactics for the 2014 Senate races.[2] By December 2013, eight of the twelve incumbent Republicans running for re-election saw Tea Party challenges.[3] However, Republican incumbents won every primary challenge.[4] Although Democrats saw some opportunities for pickups, the combination of Democratic retirements and numerous Democratic seats up for election in swing states and red states gave Republicans hopes of taking control of the Senate.[5] 7 of the 21 states with Democratic seats up for election in 2014 had voted for Republican Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election. Democrats also faced the lower voter turnout that accompanies mid-term elections.[6] Days after the election, the United States Election Project estimated that 36.6% of eligible voters voted, 4% lower than the 2010 elections, and possibly the lowest turnout rate since the 1942 election.[7][8]

Poll aggregation website FiveThirtyEight gave the Republican Party a 60% chance of taking control of the Senate as of September 28.[9] Another poll aggregation website, RealClearPolitics, gave the Republican Party a net gain of 7 seats.[10] Due to the closeness of several races, it was initially believed that Senate control might not be decided on election night.[11] Both Louisiana and Georgia were seen as competitive, and both states require a run-off election if no candidate takes a majority of the vote. Additionally, two independent candidates, Greg Orman in Kansas and Larry Pressler[12] in South Dakota, refused to commit to caucusing with either party.[11] In the final months of the race, polls showed the two independent candidates with viable chances of winning seats in the Senate, leading some analysts to speculate on the possibility of an "independent caucus" that could also include Maine Senator Angus King and possibly Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.[13][14] However, no independent won a Senate race in 2014, and King and Sanders continue to caucus with the Democratic Party following the 2014 election.

By midnight ET, most major networks projected that the Republicans would take control of the Senate. The party held all three competitive Republican-held seats (Kentucky, Kansas, and Georgia), and defeated incumbent Democrats in North Carolina, Colorado, and Arkansas. Combined with the pick-ups of open seats in Iowa, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, the Republicans made a net gain of 7 seats before the end of the night. In the process of taking control of the Senate, Republicans defeated three incumbent Democrats, a task the party had not accomplished since the 1980 election.[15] Five of the seven confirmed pickups were in states that voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, but two of the seats that Republicans won represent states that voted for Barack Obama in 2012 (Colorado and Iowa). Of the three races that were not called by the end of election night, Alaska and Virginia were still too close to call, while Louisiana held a December 6 run-off election. Virginia declared Democrat Mark Warner the winner of his race by a narrow margin over Republican Ed Gillespie on November 7, and Alaska declared Dan Sullivan the winner against Democratic incumbent Mark Begich a week later, on November 12. Republican Bill Cassidy defeated Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu in the Louisiana runoff on December 6.

Results summary

Going into the elections, there were 53 Democratic, 45 Republican and 2 independent senators (both of whom caucus with the Democrats). In all, there were 36 elections: 33 senators were up for election this year as class 2 Senators, and 3 faced special elections (all from Class 3). Of all these seats, 21 were held by Democrats and 15 were held by Republicans.

↓
54 2 44
Republican I Democrat

Colored shading indicates party with largest share of that row.

Parties Total
Democratic Republican Independent Other
Before these elections 53 45 2 0 100
Not up 32 30 2 — 64
Class 1 (2012→2018) 23 8 2 — 33
Class 3 (2010→2016) 9 22 — — 31
Up 21 15 — — 36
General: Class 2 20 13 — — 33
Special: Class 3 1 2 — — 3
Incumbent retired/resigned 4 3 — — 7
Held by same party 1 3 — — 4
Replaced by other party Decrease 3 Democrats replaced by Increase 3 Republicans — — 3
Result 1 6 — — 7
Incumbent ran 17 12 — — 29
Won re-election 11 12 — — 23
Lost re-election Decrease 5 Democrats replaced by Increase 5 Republicans — — 5
Lost renomination
but held by same party		 — — — — 0
Withdrew from renomination
and party lost		 Decrease 1 Democrat replaced by Increase 1 Republican — — 1
Result 11 18 — — 29
Total elected 12 24 0 — 36
Net gain/loss Decrease 9 Democrats replaced by Increase 9 Republicans — — Steady
Nationwide vote [Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
Share [Data unknown/missing. You can help!] 100%
Result 44 54 2 0 100

Change in composition

Senate composition before the elections

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10
D20 D19 D18 D17 D16 D15 D14 D13 D12 D11
D21 D22 D23 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D29 D30
D40
Ran		 D39
Ran		 D38
Ran		 D37
Ran		 D36
Ran		 D35
Ran		 D34
Ran		 D33
Ran		 D32 D31
D41
Ran		 D42
Ran		 D43
Ran		 D44
Ran		 D45
Ran		 D46
Ran		 D47
Ran		 D48
Ran		 D49
Ran		 D50
Retired
Majority → D51
Retired
R41
Ran		 R42
Ran		 R43
Retired		 R44
Retired		 R45
Retired		 I1 I2 D53
Retired		 D52
Retired
R40
Ran		 R39
Ran		 R38
Ran		 R37
Ran		 R36
Ran		 R35
Ran		 R34
Ran		 R33
Ran		 R32
Ran		 R31
Ran
R21 R22 R23 R24 R25 R26 R27 R28 R29 R30
R20 R19 R18 R17 R16 R15 R14 R13 R12 R11
R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

Senate composition after the elections

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10
D20 D19 D18 D17 D16 D15 D14 D13 D12 D11
D21 D22 D23 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D29 D30
D40
Re-elected		 D39
Re-elected		 D38
Re-elected		 D37
Re-elected		 D36
Re-elected		 D35
Re-elected		 D34
Re-elected		 D33
Re-elected		 D32 D31
D41
Re-elected		 D42
Re-elected		 D43
Re-elected		 D44
Hold		 I1 I2 R54
Gain		 R53
Gain		 R52
Gain		 R51
Gain
Majority →
R41
Re-elected		 R42
Re-elected		 R43
Hold		 R44
Hold		 R45
Hold		 R46
Gain		 R47
Gain		 R48
Gain		 R49
Gain		 R50
Gain
R40
Re-elected		 R39
Re-elected		 R38
Re-elected		 R37
Re-elected		 R36
Re-elected		 R35
Re-elected		 R34
Re-elected		 R33
Re-elected		 R32
Re-elected		 R31
Re-elected
R21 R22 R23 R24 R25 R26 R27 R28 R29 R30
R20 R19 R18 R17 R16 R15 R14 R13 R12 R11
R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10
Key:
D# Democratic
R# Republican
I# Independent, caucusing with Democrats[16][17]

Race summaries

Special elections during the preceding Congress

In these special elections, the winner was elected during 2014 but seated before January 3, 2015 — except that one was seated on January 3, 2015, the effective date of the predecessor's resignation.

State
(linked to
summaries below)		 Incumbent Results Candidates
Senator Party Electoral
history
Hawaii
(Class 3)		 Brian Schatz Democratic 2012 (Appointed) Senator Daniel Inouye (D) had died December 17, 2012.
Interim senator appointed December 26, 2012, and ran in the election to finish the term
Incumbent appointee elected November 4, 2014 to finish the term ending January 3, 2017.		 √ Brian Schatz (Democratic) 69.8%[18]
Campbell Cavasso (Republican) 27.7%[19]
Michael A. Kokoski (Libertarian) 2.5%[20]
Oklahoma
(Class 3)		 Tom Coburn Republican 2004
2010		 Incumbent resigned, effective January 3, 2015: the end of the preceding Congress.
Winner elected November 4, 2014 to finish the term ending January 3, 2017.
Republican hold.		 √ James Lankford (Republican) 67.9%[21]
Connie Johnson (Democratic) 29.0%[22]
Mark T. Beard (Independent) 3.2%[22]
South Carolina
(Class 3)		 Tim Scott Republican 2013 (Appointed) Senator Jim DeMint (R) had resigned January 1, 2013 to become President of the Heritage Foundation.
Interim senator was appointed January 2, 2013, and ran in the election to finish the term.
Incumbent appointee elected November 4, 2014 to finish the term ending January 3, 2017.		 √ Tim Scott (Republican) 61.1%[23]
Joyce Dickerson (Democratic) 37.1%[24]
Jill Bossi (American) 1.7%

Races leading to the next Congress

In these general elections, the races are for the class 2 seats whose terms begin January 3, 2015.

State
(linked to
summaries below)		 Incumbent Result Candidates
Senator Party Electoral
history
Alabama Jeff Sessions Republican 1996
2002
2008		 Incumbent re-elected. √ Jeff Sessions (Republican) Unopposed[25]
Alaska Mark Begich Democratic 2008 Incumbent lost re-election.
Republican gain.[26]		 √ Dan Sullivan (Republican) 48.0%[27]
Mark Begich (Democratic) 45.8%[28]
Mark Fish (Libertarian) 3.7%[29]
Ted Gianoutsos (Independent) 2.0%[30]
Arkansas Mark Pryor Democratic 2002
2008		 Incumbent lost re-election.
Republican gain.		 √ Tom Cotton (Republican) 56.5%[31]
Mark Pryor (Democratic) 39.4%[32]
Nathan LaFrance (Libertarian) 2.0%[33][34]
Mark Swaney (Green) 2.0%[35]
Colorado Mark Udall Democratic 2008 Incumbent lost re-election.
Republican gain.		 √ Cory Gardner (Republican) 48.2%[36][37][38]
Mark Udall (Democratic) 46.3%[39]
Gaylon Kent (Libertarian) 2.6%[40]
Stephen H. Shogan (Independent) 1.4%[41]
Raúl Acosta (Independent) 1.2%
Bill Hammons (Unity) 0.3%[42]
Delaware Chris Coons Democratic 2010 (Special) Incumbent re-elected. √ Chris Coons (Democratic) 55.8%[43]
Kevin Wade (Republican) 44.2%[44]
Andrew Groff (Green) 1.9%
Georgia Saxby Chambliss Republican 2002
2008		 Incumbent retired.[45]
Republican hold.		 √ David Perdue (Republican) 52.9%[46]
Michelle Nunn (Democratic) 45.2%[47]
Amanda Swafford (Libertarian) 1.9%[48]
Idaho Jim Risch Republican 2008 Incumbent re-elected. √ Jim Risch (Republican) 65.3%[49]
Nels Mitchell (Democratic) 34.7%[50]
Illinois Richard Durbin Democratic 1996
2002
2008		 Incumbent re-elected. √ Dick Durbin (Democratic) 53.5%[51]
Jim Oberweis (Republican) 42.7%[52]
Sharon Hansen (Libertarian) 3.8%[53]
Iowa Tom Harkin Democratic 1984
1990
1996
2002
2008		 Incumbent retired.[54]
Republican gain.		 √ Joni Ernst (Republican) 52.1%[55]
Bruce Braley (Democratic) 43.8%[56]
Rick Stewart (Independent) 2.4%
Doug Butzier (Libertarian) 0.7%[57]
Bob Quast (Independent) 0.5%[58]
Ruth Smith (Independent) 0.4%
Kansas Pat Roberts Republican 1996
2002
2008		 Incumbent re-elected. √ Pat Roberts (Republican) 53.1%[59]
Greg Orman (Independent) 42.5%
Randall Batson (Libertarian) 4.3%[60]
Kentucky Mitch McConnell Republican 1984
1990
1996
2002
2008		 Incumbent re-elected. √ Mitch McConnell (Republican) 56.1%[61]
Alison Lundergan Grimes (Democratic) 40.7%[62]
David Patterson (Libertarian) 3.1%[63]
Louisiana Mary Landrieu Democratic 1996
2002
2008		 Incumbent lost re-election.
Republican gain.		 √ Bill Cassidy (Republican) 55.9%[64]
Mary Landrieu (Democratic) 44.1%[65]
Maine Susan Collins Republican 1996
2002
2008		 Incumbent re-elected. √ Susan Collins (Republican) 68.5%[66]
Shenna Bellows (Democratic) 31.5%[67]
Massachusetts Ed Markey Democratic 2013 (Special) Incumbent re-elected. √ Ed Markey (Democratic) 62.0%[68]
Brian Herr (Republican) 32.0%[69]
Michigan Carl Levin Democratic 1978
1984
1990
1996
2002
2008		 Incumbent retired.[70]
Democratic hold.		 √ Gary Peters (Democratic) 54.6%[71]
Terri Lynn Land (Republican) 41.3%[72]
Jim Fulner (Libertarian) 2.0%[73]
Richard Matkin (U.S. Taxpayers) 1.2%
Chris Wahmhoff (Green) 0.9%[74]
Minnesota Al Franken Democratic-Farmer-Labor 2008 Incumbent re-elected. √ Al Franken (Democratic Farmer-Labor) 53.2%[75]
Mike McFadden (Republican) 42.9%[76]
Steve Carlson (Independence) 2.4%[77]
Heather Johnson (Libertarian) 1.5%[77]
Mississippi Thad Cochran Republican 1978
1984
1990
1996
2002
2008		 Incumbent re-elected. √ Thad Cochran (Republican) 59.9%[78]
Travis Childers (Democratic) 37.9%[79]
Shawn O'Hara (Reform) 2.2%[80]
Montana John Walsh Democratic 2014 (Appointed) Incumbent appointee withdrew from nomination.
Replacement nominee lost election to the next term.
Republican gain.		 √ Steve Daines (Republican) 57.8%[81]
Amanda Curtis (Democratic) 40.1%
Roger Roots (Libertarian) 2.1%[82]
Nebraska Mike Johanns Republican 2008 Incumbent retired.[83]
Republican hold.		 √ Ben Sasse (Republican) 64.4%[84]
David Domina (Democratic) 31.5%[85]
Jim Jenkins (Independent) 2.9%[86]
Todd Watson (Independent) 1.2%[87]
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen Democratic 2008 Incumbent re-elected. √ Jeanne Shaheen (Democratic) 51.5%[88]
Scott Brown (Republican) 48.2%[89]
New Jersey Cory Booker Democratic 2013 (Special) Incumbent re-elected. √ Cory Booker (Democratic) 55.8%[90]
Jeff Bell (Republican) 42.3%[90]
Joe Baratelli (Libertarian) 0.9%[91]
Hank Schroeder (Economic Growth) 0.3%[92]
Jeff Boss (Independent)[92] 0.2%
Eugene M. LaVergne (D-R) 0.2%[93]
Antonio Sabas (Independent) 0.2%[94]
New Mexico Tom Udall Democratic 2008 Incumbent re-elected. √ Tom Udall (Democratic) 55.6%[95]
Allen Weh (Republican) 44.4%[96]
North Carolina Kay Hagan Democratic 2008 Incumbent lost re-election.
Republican gain.		 √ Thom Tillis (Republican) 48.8%[97]
Kay Hagan (Democratic) 47.3%[98]
Sean Haugh (Libertarian) 3.7%[99]
Oklahoma Jim Inhofe Republican 1994
1996
2002
2008		 Incumbent re-elected. √ Jim Inhofe (Republican) 68.0%[75]
Matt Silverstein (Democratic) 28.6%[100]
Joan Farr (Independent) 1.3%[101]
Ray Woods (Independent) 1.2%[22]
Aaron DeLozier (Independent) 0.9%[22]
Oregon Jeff Merkley Democratic 2008 Incumbent re-elected. √ Jeff Merkley (Democratic) 55.7%[102]
Monica Wehby (Republican) 36.9%[103]
Mike Montchalin (Libertarian) 3.1%[104]
Christina Jean Lugo (Pacific Green) 2.2%[105]
James E. Leuenberger (Constitution) 1.7%[106]
Rhode Island Jack Reed Democratic 1996
2002
2008		 Incumbent re-elected. √ Jack Reed (Democratic) 70.6%[107]
Mark Zaccaria (Republican) 29.2%[108]
South Carolina Lindsey Graham Republican 2002
2008		 Incumbent re-elected. √ Lindsey Graham (Republican) 54.3%[25][25]
Brad Hutto (Democratic) 38.8%[109]
Thomas Ravenel (Independent) 3.8%[109]
Victor Kocher (Libertarian) 2.7%[109]
South Dakota Tim Johnson Democratic 1996
2002
2008		 Incumbent retired.[110]
Republican gain.		 √ Mike Rounds (Republican) 50.4%[111]
Rick Weiland (Democratic) 29.5%[112]
Larry Pressler (Independent) 17.1%[113]
Gordon Howie (Independent) 3.0%[114]
Tennessee Lamar Alexander Republican 2002
2008		 Incumbent re-elected. √ Lamar Alexander (Republican) 61.9%[115]
Gordon Ball (Democratic) 31.8%[116]
Joe B. Wilmoth (Constitution) 2.6%[117]
Martin Pleasant (Green) 0.9%[117]
Tom Emerson Jr. (Independent) 0.8%[117]
Danny Page (Independent) 0.6%[117]
Rick Tyler (Independent) 0.4%[117]
Joshua James (Independent) 0.4%[117]
Bartholomew J. Phillips (Independent) 0.2%[117]
Edmund L. Gauthier (Independent) 0.2%[117]
Eric Schechter (Independent) 0.1%[117]
Choudhury Salekin (Independent) 0.1%[117]
Texas John Cornyn Republican 2002
2008		 Incumbent re-elected. √ John Cornyn (Republican) 61.6%[25][25]
David Alameel (Democratic) 34.4%[118]
Rebecca Paddock (Libertarian) 2.9%[119]
Emily Marie Sanchez (Green) 1.2%[120]
Virginia Mark Warner Democratic 2008 Incumbent re-elected.[121] √ Mark Warner (Democratic) 49.1%[122]
Ed Gillespie (Republican) 48.3%[123]
Robert Sarvis (Libertarian) 2.4%[124][125]
West Virginia Jay Rockefeller Democratic 1984
1990
1996
2002
2008		 Incumbent retired.[126]
Republican gain.		 √ Shelley Moore Capito (Republican) 62.1%[127]
Natalie Tennant (Democratic) 34.5%[128]
John S. Buckley (Libertarian) 1.6%
Bob Henry Baber (Mountain) 1.2%[129]
Phil Hudok (Constitution) 0.6%
Wyoming Mike Enzi Republican 1996
2002
2008		 Incumbent re-elected. √ Mike Enzi (Republican) 71.2%[130]
Charlie Hardy (Democratic) 17.4%[131]
Curt Gottshall (Independent) 7.9%[132]
Joe Porambo (Libertarian) 2.2%
State
(linked to
summaries below)		 Senator Party Electoral
history		 Result Candidates
Incumbent

Predictions

Consensus predictions for the races:
     Safe Democratic seat      Competitive Democratic-held seat
     Safe Republican seat      Competitive Republican-held seat

Predicted probability of Republican takeover

Several websites used poll aggregation and psephology to estimate the probability that the Republican Party would gain enough seats to take control of the Senate.

Source Probability of Republican control Updated
FiveThirtyEight 76.2%[133] 11/4
Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang) 65%[134] 11/3
Huffington Post 79%[135] 11/3
The Upshot (New York Times) 70%[136] 11/3
Washington Post 97%[137] 11/3
Daily Kos 90%[138] 11/4

Predictions of competitive seats

Out of these 11 competitive seats, Republicans needed to win at least six in order to gain a majority of 51 seats and Democrats needed to win at least five in order to hold a majority of 50 seats (including the two independents who currently caucus with the Democrats and the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Joe Biden.

State Cook PVI Cook
(November 21, 2014)[139]		 Daily Kos Elections
(November 4, 2014)[140]		 Five Thirty Eight
(November 4, 2014)[141]
[note 1][note 2]		 New York Times
(November 4, 2014)[142]
[note 1][note 2]		 Real Clear Politics
(November 20, 2014)[143]		 Rothenberg
(November 6, 2014)[144]		 Sabato
(December 4, 2014)[145]		 Median prediction
[note 3]		 Winner
Alaska R+12 Tossup 77% R 74% R 66% R Tossup Tossup/Tilt R Lean R Lean R Sullivan
Arkansas R+14 Tossup 97% R 96% R 89% R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Cotton
Colorado D+1 Tossup 78% R 72% R 80% R Tossup Tossup/Tilt R Lean R Lean R Gardner
Georgia R+6 Tossup 93% R 75% R 67% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Perdue
Iowa D+1 Tossup 75% R 70% R 69% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Ernst
Kansas R+12 Tossup 92% R 53% I 51% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Roberts
Kentucky R+13 Lean R 97% R 98% R 98% R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R McConnell
Louisiana R+12 Lean R 85% R 81% R 85% R Likely R Lean R Safe R Likely R Cassidy
(in runoff)
New Hampshire D+1 Tossup 59% D 79% D 66% D Tossup Tossup/Tilt D Lean D Tossup/Tilt D Shaheen
North Carolina R+3 Tossup 56% D 69% D 71% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tillis
  1. 1 2 The Five Thirty Eight and New York Times predictions reflect the probability that the party will win the seat. They are not predictions of vote share.
  2. 1 2 The Five Thirty Eight and New York Times probabilities for Kansas are for the Republican, Pat Roberts, versus the Independent candidate, Greg Orman. Because it is unclear who Orman will caucus with should he be elected, the Kansas race will be sorted in the middle of the list if he is leading.
  3. ↑ The Daily Kos Elections, Five Thirty Eight and New York Times predictions are on a cardinal scale; the others are on an incomparable ordinal scale. The median only reflects the ordinal predictions (Cook, Real Clear Politics, Rothenberg and Sabato).

Other seats

State Cook PVI Cook
(October 29, 2014)[139]		 Daily Kos Elections
(November 3, 2014)[140]		 Five Thirty Eight
(October 29, 2014)[141]		 New York Times
(October 29, 2014)[142]		 Real Clear Politics
(October 29, 2014)[143]		 Rothenberg
(October 29, 2014)[144]		 Sabato
(October 29, 2014)[145]		 Jay DeSart
(October 28, 2014)[146]		 Winner
Alabama R+14 Safe R Safe R 100% R >99% R Safe R Safe R Safe R 100% R Sessions
Delaware D+8 Safe D Safe D >99% D >99% D Safe D Safe D Safe D 99% D Coons
Hawaii
(special: Class 3)		 D+20 Safe D Safe D >99% D >99% D Safe D Safe D Safe D >99% D Schatz
Idaho R+18 Safe R Safe R >99% R >99% R Safe R Safe R Safe R >99% R Risch
Illinois D+8 Safe D Safe D >99% D >99% D Likely D Safe D Safe D 97% D Durbin
Maine D+6 Safe R Safe R >99% R >99% R Safe R Safe R Safe R >99% R Collins
Massachusetts D+10 Safe D Safe D >99% D >99% D Safe D Safe D Safe D >99% D Markey
Michigan D+4 Lean D Safe D 99% D 98% D Safe D Likely D Likely D 94% D Peters
Minnesota D+2 Likely D Safe D 96% D >99% D Likely D Likely D Likely D 93% D Franken
Mississippi R+9 Likely R Safe R >99% R >99% R Likely R Safe R Safe R 99% R Cochran
Montana R+7 Safe R Safe R >99% R >99% R Safe R Safe R Safe R 93% R Daines
Nebraska R+12 Safe R Safe R >99% R >99% R Safe R Safe R Safe R >99% R Sasse
New Jersey D+6 Safe D Safe D >99% D >99% D Likely D Safe D Safe D 98% D Booker
New Mexico D+4 Safe D Safe D >99% D 99% D Likely D Safe D Safe D 92% D Udall
Oklahoma R+19 Safe R Safe R >99% R >99% R Safe R Safe R Safe R >99% R Inhofe
Oklahoma
(special: Class 3)		 R+19 Safe R Safe R >99% R >99% R Safe R Safe R Safe R >99% R Lankford
Oregon D+5 Likely D Safe D >99% D >99% D Likely D Likely D Likely D 98% D Merkley
Rhode Island D+11 Safe D Safe D >99% D >99% D Safe D Safe D Safe D >99% D Reed
South Carolina R+8 Safe R Safe R >99% R >99% R Safe R Safe R Safe R >99% R Graham
South Carolina
(special: Class 3)		 R+8 Safe R Safe R >99% R >99% R Safe R Safe R Safe R >99% R Scott
South Dakota R+10 Lean R Likely R >99% R 99% R Likely R Likely R Likely R 97% R Rounds
Tennessee R+12 Safe R Safe R >99% R >99% R Safe R Safe R Safe R >99% R Alexander
Texas R+10 Safe R Safe R >99% R >99% R Safe R Safe R Safe R >99% R Cornyn
Virginia Even Likely D 99% D >99% D 97% D Lean D Likely D Likely D 85.7% D Warner
West Virginia R+13 Likely R Safe R 99% R >99% R Likely R Safe R Safe R 97% R Capito
Wyoming R+22 Safe R Safe R >99% R >99% R Safe R Safe R Safe R >99% R Enzi

Complete list of races

Alabama

Three-term incumbent Republican Jeff Sessions had been re-elected with 63% of the vote in 2008. Sessions sought re-election. No Democrat filed to run against him,[147] and Sessions won with 97.3 percent of the vote[148] against assorted write-in candidates.[149]

Alaska

One-term incumbent Democrat Mark Begich had been first elected with 48% of the vote in 2008, defeating six-term Senator Ted Stevens by 3,953 votes (a margin of 1.25%).[150] Begich was 52 years old in 2014 and was seeking re-election to a second term.[28] Stevens, who would have been almost 91 years old at the time of the election, had already filed for a rematch back in 2009,[28] but was killed in a plane crash the following year.

Republican Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell,[151] 2010 nominee Joe Miller,[152] State Natural Resources Commissioner Daniel S. Sullivan,[153] and Air Force veteran John Jaramillo ran for the GOP nomination. In the August 19 primary, Sullivan won the Republican nomination with 40% and defeated Begich in the general election.[154]

Arkansas

Arkansas results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Darker blue: more Democratic

Two-term incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor had been re-elected with 80% of the vote without Republican opposition in 2008.[155] Pryor was running for a third term.[32]

Freshman Representative Tom Cotton of Arkansas's 4th congressional district was the Republican nominee.[156] In the general election, Cotton defeated Pryor.

Colorado

Colorado results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Darker blue: more Democratic

One-term incumbent Democrat Mark Udall had been elected with 53% of the vote in 2008. Udall was running for re-election.[157]

Congressman Cory Gardner of Colorado's 4th congressional district was the Republican nominee; his late entry into the race caused numerous Republicans to withdraw their candidacies.[158] Gaylon Kent was the Libertarian Party nominee. Unity Party of America founder and National Chairman Bill Hammons was the Unity Party nominee.

Delaware

Democrat Chris Coons won in the 2010 special election caused by Joe Biden's election as Vice President, winning by a 57% to 41% margin. Coons sought re-election. His Republican opponent was engineer Kevin Wade,[159] whom Coons went on to defeat in the general election.

Georgia

Georgia results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Darker blue: more Democratic

Two-term incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss had been re-elected with 57% of the vote in 2008 in a runoff election with former state Representative Jim Martin; Georgia requires run-off elections when no Senate candidate wins over 50% of the vote. Chambliss did not seek a third term.[45]

Political activist Derrick Grayson,[160] Representatives Jack Kingston of Georgia's 1st congressional district,[161] Paul Broun of Georgia's 10th congressional district,[162] and Phil Gingrey of Georgia's 11th congressional district[163] all declared their candidacy for the Republican nomination, as did former Secretary of State Karen Handel[164] and wealthy businessman David Perdue, cousin of former Governor Sonny Perdue.[165] In the May 20 primary, no candidate received a majority of votes, so the top two candidates faced each other in a runoff; Perdue won against Kingston in the runoff primary election on July 22 with 50.9% of the vote.[166]

Michelle Nunn, CEO of Points of Light and the daughter of former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, won the Democratic nomination.[167][168] Other declared Democratic candidates included former State Senator Steen Miles, psychiatrist Branko Radulovacki, and former US Army Ranger Todd Robinson. Amanda Swafford, a former Flowery Branch, Georgia city councilwoman, received the Libertarian Party of Georgia nomination.

Hawaii (special)

Daniel Inouye, the second longest serving United States Senator in U.S. history, died on December 17, 2012, after respiratory complications.[169] Hawaii law allows the Governor of Hawaii, to appoint an interim Senator "who serves until the next regularly-scheduled general election, chosen from a list of three prospective appointees that the prior incumbent's political party submits". Governor Neil Abercrombie did so,[170] selecting Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz to fill the Senate seat.[171] Inouye had been re-elected in 2010 with 72% of the vote.[172] Schatz was challenged in the Democratic primary by Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa of Hawaii's 1st congressional district, who Inouye had hoped would be his successor.[173] Schatz defeated Hanabusa in the primary with 48.5% to 47.8%.[174]

Campbell Cavasso, former State Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004 and 2010, was the Republican nominee.[175]

Idaho

Idaho results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Darker blue: more Democratic

One-term incumbent Republican Jim Risch had been elected with 58% of the vote in 2008. Risch sought a second term.[49]

Boise attorney Nels Mitchell was the Democratic nominee.[176]

Illinois

Three-term incumbent and Senate Majority Whip Democrat Dick Durbin had been re-elected with 68% of the vote in 2008. Durbin ran for a fourth term.[177]

State Senator Jim Oberweis was the Republican nominee.[178] He defeated primary challenger Doug Truax with 56% of the vote.

Iowa

Iowa results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Darker blue: more Democratic

Five-term incumbent Democrat Tom Harkin had been re-elected with 63% of the vote in 2008. Harkin announced on January 26, 2013 that he would not seek a sixth term.[179] Congressman Bruce Braley is the Democratic nominee.[180][181]

State Senator Joni Ernst was the Republican nominee.[182]

Doug Butzier, who was the Libertarian Party's nominee, died in a plane crash on October 13, 2014, but still appeared on the ballot.[183]

Kansas

Three-term incumbent Republican Pat Roberts had been re-elected with 60% of the vote in 2008. Roberts sought a fourth term.[59] He faced a primary challenge from radiologist Milton Wolf, a conservative Tea Party supporter.[184] Roberts defeated Wolf in the Republican primary by 48% to 41%.[185] Shawnee County District Attorney Chad Taylor won the Democratic nomination.[186] Randall Batson from Wichita was on the general election ballot as a Libertarian.[187] Also, Greg Orman qualified for the ballot as an independent.[188]

On September 3, Taylor announced he was dropping out of the election, leading to speculation that Democrats would support Orman's candidacy.[189] On September 18, the Kansas Supreme Court ruled that Taylor's name had to be removed from the ballot.[190]

Kentucky

Kentucky results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Darker blue: more Democratic

Five-term Republican incumbent and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had been re-elected with 53% of the vote in 2008. McConnell is seeking re-election to a sixth term.[61] McConnell defeated businessman Matt Bevin in the Republican primary on May 20.[191]

Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, with support from much of Kentucky's Democratic leadership, won the Democratic primary.[191][192] Actress Ashley Judd publicly claimed to be considering a run for the Democratic nomination, but ultimately decided against it.[193][194]

Ed Marksberry pursued an independent bid after dropping out of the Democratic field in September 2013.[195][196]

Louisiana

Three-term incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu had been re-elected with 52% of the vote in 2008. Landrieu ran for a fourth term.[65][197]

Louisiana uses a unique jungle primary system that eschews primaries in favor of run-off elections between the top two candidates; this run-off can be avoided if the winning candidate receives over 50% of the vote. Democrats Wayne Ables, Vallian Senegal, and William Waymire ran against Landrieu in the election, as did Republicans Bill Cassidy (representative of Louisiana's 6th congressional district), Thomas Clements (small business owner), and retired Air Force Colonel Rob Maness.[198][199] Electrical Engineer Brannon McMorris ran as a Libertarian.[200]

Because Republican candidate Maness took almost 14% of the votes in the primary, there was a runoff election on December 6, 2014 between Landrieu (42%)and Cassidy (41%). Cassidy won the runoff with 56% of the vote.

Maine

Maine results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Lighter red: less Republican

Three-term incumbent Republican Susan Collins was seeking a fourth term.[201][202] Shenna Bellows, former Executive Director of the American Civil Liberties Union of Maine, was the Democratic nominee.[203]

Massachusetts

Five-term incumbent and 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry had been re-elected with 66% of the vote in 2008. Kerry resigned in early 2013 to become U.S. Secretary of State.[204] Governor Deval Patrick appointed Democrat Mo Cowan to the seat.[205] Democratic Congressman Ed Markey beat Republican Gabriel E. Gomez in the June 25, 2013 special election by a 55% to 45% margin.[206] Markey had served the remainder of Kerry's term before running for re-election in 2014.[68] Hopkinton Town Selectman Brian Herr was the Republican nominee.

Michigan

Michigan results by county
Darker blue: more Democratic, Darker red: more Republican

Six-term incumbent Senator and Chairman of the Armed Services Committee Democrat Carl Levin, the longest-serving senator in Michigan's history, had been re-elected with 63% of the vote in 2008. Levin announced on March 7, 2013 that he would not seek re-election.[70]

Three term Democratic Representative Gary Peters of MI-14 was the Democratic nominee.[207] He defeated Republican former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land who was unopposed for the Republican nomination.[208]

Minnesota

Minnesota results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Darker blue: more Democratic

One-term incumbent Democrat Al Franken unseated one-term Republican Norm Coleman by 312 votes in a contested three-way race with 42% of the vote in 2008; the third candidate in the race, Dean Barkley of the Independence Party of Minnesota, won 15% of the vote.[209] Franken is seeking re-election.[210] State Representative Jim Abeler,[211] St. Louis County Commissioner Chris Dahlberg,[212] co-CEO of Lazard Middle Market Mike McFadden,[76] bison farmer and former hair salon owner Monti Moreno,[213] state Senator Julianne Ortman,[214] and U.S. Navy reservist Phillip Parrish[215] ran for the Republican nomination. McFadden won the Republican primary and is the Republican nominee in the general election.[216]

Hannah Nicollet of the Independence Party of Minnesota also ran.[217]

Mississippi

Six-term incumbent Republican Thad Cochran, re-elected with 62% of the vote in 2008, is running for re-election.[78] Cochran was the last incumbent Senator to declare his plans, leading to widespread speculation that he might announce his retirement.[218][219] Tea Party candidate Chris McDaniel, a conservative Mississippi state senator, ran against Cochran in the Republican primary.[220] Neither McDaniel nor Cochran was able to get 50% of the vote in the first round of the primary, so a runoff election was held June 24.[221] Cochran won the runoff election by 51% to 49%, with the help of Democratic voters eligible to vote in the state's open primaries who chose Cochran as the more preferable Republican.[222] McDaniel filed a lawsuit to challenge the results of the run-off, but the challenge was rejected on appeal by the Supreme Court of Mississippi.[223]

Former Congressman Travis Childers was the Democratic nominee.[79]

Montana

Montana results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Darker blue: more Democratic

Six-term incumbent Democrat Max Baucus, the longest-serving senator in Montana's history, had been re-elected with 73% of the vote in 2008. Baucus announced on April 23, 2013 that he would retire in 2014, rather than seek re-election to a seventh term.[224] Baucus was appointed as the United States Ambassador to China, leading him to resign from the Senate in February 2014.[225]

Following Baucus's confirmation as ambassador, Governor Steve Bullock appointed the Lieutenant Governor John Walsh to fill the vacant senate seat.[226] Former Lieutenant Governor John Bohlinger was defeated by Walsh in the Democratic primary. Amid controversy over alleged plagiarism in a 2007 research paper, Walsh pulled out of the race.[227] The Montana Democratic Party held a special nominating convention on August 16 to choose a replacement for Walsh. First-term State Representative Amanda Curtis won the nomination, thereby becoming the new Democratic nominee.[228]

Congressman Steve Daines won the Republican nomination[229] over state Representative Champ Edmunds of Missoula and David Leaser of Kalispell.

Nebraska

Nebraska results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Lighter red: less Republican

One-term incumbent Republican Mike Johanns had been elected with 58% of the vote in 2008. He is not seeking second term.[230] Term limited Republican Governor Dave Heineman considered running for the Republican nomination, but ultimately decided not to do so.[231] Former state Treasurer Shane Osborn,[232] attorney Bart McLeay, banker Sid Dinsdale, and Midland University President Ben Sasse ran for the Republican nomination.[233][234] In the May 13 primary, Sasse won the Republican nomination.

Trial lawyer David Domina was the Democratic nominee.[235]

New Hampshire

One-term incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen had been elected with 52% of the vote in 2008. Shaheen ran for re-election.[88] Shasheen defeated Republican nominee

Scott Brown, who had represented neighboring Massachusetts in the Senate from 2010 to 2013. [236]

New Jersey

New Jersey results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Darker blue: more Democratic

Incumbent Democrat Frank Lautenberg had been re-elected with 56% of the vote in 2008. After announcing he would not seek re-election, Lautenberg died in June 2013, aged 89, after a long period of ill health.[237][238]

Newark Mayor Cory Booker, a Democrat, defeated Republican nominee Steve Lonegan by 55%-to-45% in a 2013 special election to replace interim Republican appointee Jeffrey Chiesa.[239] Booker ran for re-election in 2014. 1978 and 1982 Republican candidate and political operative Jeff Bell was the Republican nominee.[240]

New Mexico

One-term incumbent Democrat Tom Udall had been elected with 61% of the vote in 2008. Former Doña Ana County Republican Party Chairman David Clements and former New Mexico Republican Party Chairman Allen Weh sought the Republican nomination.[241] Weh won the June 3 primary but lost to Udall in the general election.

North Carolina

North Carolina results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Darker blue: more Democratic

One-term incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan had been elected with 53% of the vote against incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole in 2008. Hagan was seeking re-election.[242][243][244]

State House Speaker Thom Tillis was the Republican nominee.[245] Sean Haugh won the Libertarian nomination.[243]

Oklahoma

Three-term incumbent Republican Jim Inhofe had been re-elected with 57% of the vote in 2008. Inhofe sought re-election. Matt Silverstein, an insurance agency owner, ran for the Democratic nomination.[246]

Oklahoma (special)

Two-term incumbent Republican Tom Coburn had been re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2010, and was not scheduled to be up for election again until 2016. However, Coburn announced his intention to resign at the end of the 113th Congress. A special election to fill his seat took place in November 2014, concurrent with the other Senate elections.[247] Congressman James Lankford was the Republican nominee.[248][249] State Senator Connie Johnson was the Democratic nominee.[250]

Oregon

Oregon results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Darker blue: more Democratic

One-term incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley was narrowly elected with 49% of the vote in 2008. Merkley was running for a second term. State representative Jason Conger, attorney Tim Crawley, IT consultant Mark Callahan, neurosurgeon Dr. Monica Wehby, and former Linn County Republican Chair Jo Rae Perkins all ran for the Republican nomination,[251] with Wehby ultimately winning the nomination in the May 20 primary.[252]

Rhode Island

Three-term incumbent Democrat Jack Reed had been re-elected in 2012 with 73% of the vote in 2008.[253] Reed defeated Republican nominee Mark Zaccaria in the 2014 election.

South Carolina

Two-term incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham had been re-elected with 58% of the vote in 2008. Graham won the Republican nomination over a field that included state senator Lee Bright. State Senator Brad Hutto won the Democratic nomination.[254]

South Carolina (special)

Jim DeMint had been elected to a second term in 2010, but resigned from the Senate in January 2013 to become president of The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank. Governor Nikki Haley appointed Congressman Tim Scott as DeMint's replacement.[255] Scott, an African-American, was the Republican nominee to serve out the remainder of DeMint's term. Scott is the first African-American Republican since shortly after Reconstruction to represent a Southern state. Richland County Councilwoman Joyce Dickerson won the Democratic nomination.[256]

South Dakota

Three-term incumbent Democrat Tim Johnson had been re-elected with 63% of the vote in 2008. Johnson announced on March 26, 2013 that he would not run for re-election.[257] Former Congressional aide Rick Weiland is the Democratic nominee.[258]

Among Republicans, former two-term Governor Mike Rounds announced his candidacy for the GOP nomination on November 29, 2012.[259] Rounds won the Republican nomination over state senator Larry Rhoden, state representative Stace Nelson, and physician Annette Bosworth.[260]

Former Republican U.S. Senator Larry Pressler and Republican State Senator Gordon Howie ran as independents.[261][262] Pressler did not commit to caucusing with either party, while Howie said he would caucus with the Senate Republicans.[263][264]

Tennessee

Tennessee results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Darker blue: more Democratic

Two-term incumbent Republican Lamar Alexander had been re-elected with 65% of the vote in 2008. Alexander sought re-election to a third term.[115] On August 7, 2014, Alexander won the Republican nomination over six challengers, including State Representative Joe Carr.[265]

On November 4, 2014, Alexander faced Democratic nominee Gordon Ball, Libertarian Party nominee Joshua James,[266] Constitution Party nominee Joe Wilmothm, and independent Danny Page[266] also ran in the general election.

Texas

Texas results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Darker blue: more Democratic

Two-term incumbent Republican John Cornyn, the Senate Minority Whip, had been re-elected with 55% of the vote in 2008. Cornyn sought re-election, and won the 2014 Republican primary with 59% of the vote. David Alameel, a dentist, and Kesha Rogers, a volunteer for The Lyndon LaRouche Policy Institute, faced each other in a run-off election for the Democratic nomination.[267] Alameel won the run-off and was the Democratic nominee.[268]

Virginia

Virginia results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Darker blue: more Democratic

One-term incumbent Democrat Mark Warner had been elected with 65% of the vote in 2008; he sought re-election. Ed Gillespie, former RNC Chairman and presidential adviser, ran for the Republican nomination. Robert Sarvis, the Libertarian nominee for Governor in 2013, also ran.[269]

West Virginia

West Virginia results by county
Darker red: more Republican, Lighter red: less Republican

Five-term incumbent Democrat Jay Rockefeller had been re-elected with 64% of the vote in 2008. He announced on January 11, 2013 that he would not seek re-election to a sixth term. Secretary of State Natalie Tennant won the Democratic nomination.[270]

On November 26, 2012, Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito announced her plans to run for the seat, in hopes of becoming the first Republican Senator elected from West Virginia since 1956.[271] Moore Capito won the Republican nomination and the general election, the first woman to serve as United States Senator from West Virginia.

Wyoming

Three-term incumbent Republican Mike Enzi had been re-elected with 76% of the vote in 2008. Enzi sought re-election. Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, briefly entered the race for the Republican nomination, but dropped her bid in January 2014.[272] On August 19, Enzi won the Republican primary election with 82% of the vote, and Democrat Charlie Hardy, a former Catholic priest, won his party's primary election with 48% of the vote.[273]

See also

References

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  3. ↑ Raju, Manu (December 10, 2013). "Tea partiers line up to tackle GOP senators". Politico. Retrieved December 16, 2013.
  4. ↑ Palmer, Anna (August 8, 2014). "GOP civil war to rage on". Politico. Retrieved August 8, 2014.
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