United States Senate election in Kansas, 2016

November 8, 2016



Nominee	Jerry Moran	Patrick Wiesner	Robert Garrard
Party	Republican	Democratic	Libertarian
Popular vote	732,376	379,740	65,760
Percentage	62.1%	32.2%	5.5%

U.S. Senator before election

Jerry Moran
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jerry Moran
Republican

Elections in Kansas

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2005: Amendment 1

The 2016 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 2.

Incumbent Republican Senator Jerry Moran won re-election to a second term in office.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Jerry Moran, incumbent Senator^[1]
D.J. Smith, former Osawatomie City Councilwoman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[2]

Declined

Mike Pompeo, U.S. Representative^[3]
Tim Huelskamp, U.S. Representative^[1]^[4]
Todd Tiahrt, former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[5]^[6]
Milton Wolf, radiologist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[7]^[5]^[8]^[9]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jerry Moran	Dennis Pyle	Milton Wolf	Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies*	February 28-March 3, 2015	500	± 4.38%	73%	9%	—	18%
Public Opinion Strategies*	February 28-March 3, 2015	500	± 4.38%	70%	—	18%	12%

*Internal poll for Jerry Moran campaign

Results

Republican primary results ^[10]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jerry Moran	230,907	79.09
	Republican	D.J. Smith	61,056	20.91
Total votes			291,963	100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Patrick Wiesner, attorney and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2014^[11]
Monique Singh-Bey, member of Universal African Peoples Organization^[12]

Declined

Carl Brewer, former Mayor of Wichita^[5]
Paul Davis, former Minority Leader of the Kansas House of Representatives and nominee for Governor of Kansas in 2014^[5]
Dan Glickman, former U.S. Representative and former United States Secretary of Agriculture^[13]
Jill Docking, businesswoman, former member of the Kansas Board of Regents, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996 and nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2014^[13]
Greg Orman, businessman and Independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[5]
Joe Reardon, former Mayor of Kansas City and Wyandotte County^[5]
Kathleen Sebelius, former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services and former Governor of Kansas^[14]^[15]
Jim Slattery, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2008^[5]^[13]
Margie Wakefield, attorney and nominee for Kansas's 2nd congressional district in 2014^[5]

Results

Democratic primary results ^[10]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Patrick Wiesner	59,522	62.94
	Democratic	Monique Singh-Bey	35,042	37.06
Total votes			94,564	100

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Robert Garrard, nominee for KS-02 in 2008^[2]

Libertarian primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Robert Garrard		100
Total votes				100

Independent

Candidates

Declined

Greg Orman, businessman and Independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[5]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[16]	104 !Safe R	September 9, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[17]	104 !Safe R	September 19, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[18]	104 !Safe R	September 2, 2016
Daily Kos^[19]	104 !Safe R	September 16, 2016
Real Clear Politics^[20]	104 !Safe R	September 15, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jerry Moran (R)	Patrick Wiesner (D)	Robert Garrard (L)	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	1,311	± 4.6%	59%	37%	—	4%
SurveyMonkey	October 31–November 6, 2016	1,139	± 4.6%	58%	38%	—	4%
Fort Hays State University	November 1–3, 2016	313	± 3.5%	77%	13%	10%	0%
SurveyMonkey	October 28–November 3, 2016	1,162	± 4.6%	58%	38%	—	4%
SurveyMonkey	October 27–November 2, 2016	1,123	± 4.6%	57%	38%	—	5%
SurveyMonkey	October 26–November 1, 2016	1,164	± 4.6%	57%	38%	—	5%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	1,273	± 4.6%	56%	39%	—	5%
KSN News/SurveyUSA	October 26–30, 2016	596	± 4.1%	55%	31%	6%	8%
KSN News/SurveyUSA	October 11–15, 2016	549	± 4.2%	56%	31%	5%	8%
KSN News/SurveyUSA	September 6–11, 2016	565	± 4.2%	50%	34%	6%	11%
KSN News/SurveyUSA	August 3–7, 2016	566	± 4.2%	52%	32%	6%	10%
KSN News/SurveyUSA	July 8–11, 2016	537	± 4.3%	52%	33%	—	15%

Hypothetical polling

with Monique Singh-Bey

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jerry Moran (R)	Monique Singh-Bey (D)	Undecided
KSN News/SurveyUSA	July 8–11, 2016	537	± 4.3%	54%	30%	15%

with Kathleen Sebelius

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jerry Moran (R)	Kathleen Sebelius (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 11–14, 2014	1,328	± 2.7%	52%	37%	11%

Results

United States Senate election in Kansas, 2016 ^[21]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Republican	Jerry Moran	716,661	62.39	-7.95%
	Democratic	Patrick Wiesner	368,672	32.09	+5.93%
	Libertarian	Robert D. Garrard	63,428	5.52	+3.4%
Majority			347,989	30.3%
Total votes			1,148,761	100
	Republican hold		Swing

References

1 2 Alexis Levinson (November 19, 2014). "Huelskamp Open to Moran Primary Challenge". Roll Call. Retrieved November 19, 2014.
1 2 Wingerter, Justin (June 2, 2016). "Rep. Lynn Jenkins drops a challenger, Sen. Jerry Moran gains one at the filing deadline". Topeka Capital-Journal. Retrieved June 2, 2016.
↑ Clarkin, Mary (April 5, 2016). "Pompeo doesn't rule out a Senate race while criticizing Moran". Hays Daily News. Retrieved April 5, 2016.
↑ Alexis Levinson (January 8, 2015). "Congressman Says Wife Nixed Senate Run". Roll Call. Retrieved January 8, 2015.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
↑ Clarkin, Mary (April 27, 2015). "Ex-Congressman Tiahrt bound for D.C. lobbying firm". The Hutchinson News. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
↑ Alexis Levinson (July 29, 2014). "In Kansas, Conservatives Suffer From Mississippi Hangover". Roll Call. Retrieved September 11, 2014.
↑ Wingerter, Justin (November 3, 2015). "Prospective 2016 U.S. Senate contender Milton Wolf tries to terminate his campaign committee". The Topeka Capital-Journal. Retrieved November 11, 2015.
↑ Kraske, Steve (February 19, 2016). "Milton Wolf hints, but won't commit, to another race this year for the U.S. Senate from Kansas". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved March 22, 2016.
1 2 "2016 Official Primary Results". Kansas Secretary of State. August 2, 2016. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
↑ Clarkin, Mary (February 4, 2016). "Democrat Patrick Wiesner files for Jerry Moran's Senate seat". The Hutchinson News. Retrieved February 5, 2016.
↑ Mason, Tori (December 1, 2015). "Topeka native announces candidacy for U.S. Senate". WIBW. Retrieved March 10, 2016.
1 2 3 Helling, Dave (November 12, 2015). "Kansas Democrats see an opening but fear they can't take advantage". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved March 22, 2016.
↑ Sullivan, Sean (April 11, 2014). "Why Kathleen Sebelius's political career is (probably) over". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 17, 2014.
↑ Kraske, Steve (January 20, 2015). "Kathleen Sebelius criticizes Gov. Sam Brownback's vision for Kansas". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 9, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 9, 2016.
↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
↑ "2016 Senate Ratings (September 2, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2016.
↑ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
↑ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 15, 2016.
↑ "Unofficial Kansas General Election Results". Kansas Secretary of State. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 18, 2016.

External links

Official campaign websites

(2015 ←) 2016 United States elections (→ 2017)

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