Tasmanian state election, 2010

Tasmanian state election, 2010

20 March 2010

All 25 seats to the House of Assembly   First party Second party Third party   Leader David Bartlett Will Hodgman Nick McKim Party Labor Liberal Greens Leader since 26 May 2008 30 March 2006 7 July 2008 Leader's seat Denison Franklin Franklin Last election 14 seats, 49.27% 7 seats, 31.82% 4 seats, 16.64% Seats won 10 10 5 Seat change 4 3 1 Popular vote 118,168 124,933 69,233 Percentage 36.88% 38.99% 21.61% Swing 12.39% 7.17% 4.97%

Premier before election David Bartlett Labor Subsequent Premier David Bartlett Labor

The 2010 Tasmanian state election was held on 20 March 2010 to elect members to the Tasmanian House of Assembly.^[1] The 12-year incumbent Labor government, led by Premier of Tasmania David Bartlett, won a fourth consecutive term against the Liberal opposition, led by Will Hodgman, after Labor formed a minority government with the support of the Greens.

The election was conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission, an independent body answerable to Parliament. As in past Tasmania state elections, the proportional Hare-Clark system was used to allocate the 25 seats in the House. The Commission announced that there were 357,315 enrolled electors at the close of rolls.^[2] A total of 89 candidates nominated for election.^[3]

Dates

On 17 November 2008, David Bartlett announced his government's intention to pass legislation enacting fixed electoral terms for Tasmania, with the next election scheduled to be held on 20 March 2010.^[4] It was noted by ABC election analyst Antony Green that the date was the same as the already-legislated South Australian election, and that this may have an effect on media coverage of both elections.^[5] The draft legislation for the bill was referred to the Select Committee on the Working Arrangements of Parliament in October 2009, although Bartlett confirmed that the government was committed to the 20 March election date despite the fixed-term legislation not being enacted.^[6]

On 12 February 2010, the Premier visited the Governor of Tasmania, Peter Underwood, to request that he dissolve the House of Assembly and issue the writs for the election. The Governor agreed to the following election dates:^[7]

• 19 February 2010: Issue of writs and close of electoral rolls
• 4 March 2010: Close of candidate nominations
• 5 March 2010: Announcement of candidate nominations
• 20 March 2010: Polling day

Campaign

On 8 February, the Premier announced that Tasmania's first televised leaders' debate would be held on 14 March between himself and opposition leader Will Hodgman, and would be broadcast nationally by Sky News.^[8] At the time of the announcement, Mr Hodgman was not aware of the debate and Greens leader Nick McKim was not invited.^[9]

On 10 March, around 100 forest workers protested outside the Greens official campaign launch.^[10]

On 12 March, two Liberal and two Labor ex-premiers—Paul Lennon, Michael Field, Robin Gray and Tony Rundle—issued a joint press release warning voters of the dangers of minority government with the Greens holding the balance of power.^[11]

In the week before the election, the Labor party distributed leaflets alleging that the Greens had a plan to legalise heroin and give "violent criminals" the right to vote.^[12] In addition, 20,000 automated phone calls (robocalls) were made to residents of Braddon repeating these claims about the Greens, although Labor ended the campaign after a public backlash.^[13]

On 15 March, David Bartlett said he would resign if the Liberal party won more seats than Labor.^[14]

Polling

Polling was conducted every three months by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each poll was 1,000 Tasmanian voters.^[15]

Results

Source: Tasmanian Electoral Commission

Primary vote by division

Final distribution of seats

Outcome

Labor lost four seats on a swing of 12.39 percentage points against it, whilst the Liberals gained three seats and the Greens one—the latter recording their highest ever statewide vote of 21.61%. This meant that both the Labor and Liberal Parties had 10 seats each, meaning neither could form majority government. It took over two weeks for the results to be formally declared, although the number of seats for each party was almost certain by the end of counting on the night of the election and the main question was which representatives of each party would win a seat, with the Hare-Clark and Robson rotation systems meaning that some incumbent members on both sides of parliament were defeated by newcomers from their own party.^[16] The only inter-party battles for a seat during the counting process were between the Greens and Liberals for the final seat in Braddon (won by the Greens), and between independent Andrew Wilkie and the Liberals for the final seat in Denison (won by the Liberals).

Attention was then focussed on the positions of the parties. Greens leader Nick McKim declared he was willing to make a deal with either party, whilst Labor leader David Bartlett and Liberal leader Will Hodgman insisted they would stick to promises made before the election not to enter into any deals. Bartlett had also pledged that whoever won the most seats or, in the event of a tie, the most votes would have the right to form a government. Since the Liberals had won the popular vote by a margin of 6,700 votes, both leaders now claimed this meant that Hodgman had the right to form a ministry.^[16] On 1 April, the Labor caucus unanimously agreed to relinquish power, and Bartlett then advised the Governor, Peter Underwood, that Hodgman should be summoned to form a government.^[17] Former federal Labor powerbroker Graham Richardson called Bartlett "silly" for not negotiating with the Greens.^[18]

On 7 April the results were formally declared. Under the Constitution Act 1934 Underwood had seven days to commission a Government. Ultimately, after speaking to Bartlett and Hodgman, he recommissioned Bartlett on 9 April. He released detailed reasons for his decision, saying that Bartlett did not have the right to promise power to Hodgman, and that Hodgman was not in a position to form stable government. He regarded as irrelevant the position of the Greens, regarding it as a matter for the Assembly as a whole to test or maintain support for the ministry.^[19] The Liberals had not held talks with the Greens and Labor had not promised that a Liberal minority government would have a minimum period of support. Hodgman would have thus faced the prospect of being defeated in the legislature almost as soon as he was sworn in. Since longstanding convention in the Westminster system holds that an incumbent premier should have the first chance to form a government after an election, Underwood decided to recommission Bartlett and allow him to demonstrate that he had support on the floor of the Assembly.^[20]

Hodgman accused Bartlett of breaking his promise to hand over power, noting that in a letter to the Governor, Bartlett had contradicted a public statement made on 1 April where he had said he would not move any vote of no confidence against a Liberal government.^[21] However, Professor Richard Herr of the University of Tasmania believed the Governor's stance was a correct one, as it served the interests of stable government.^[22] Constitutional law expert Michael Stokes disagreed, saying too high a bar had been set for the Liberals and Labor had not proven it could deliver stable government in the new Assembly.^[23]

On the day before the decision was finalised, the Greens indicated that as no party had shown a willingness to negotiate a deal with them, they would neither initiate nor support a vote of no confidence against the Labor government until a deal with either party could be arranged.^[24]

On 13 April, to meet the deadline imposed by the Constitution Act 1934, Governor Underwood swore in an interim cabinet, consisting of David Bartlett as Premier, Lara Giddings as Deputy Premier and Attorney-General, and Michael Aird as Treasurer.^[25]

On 19 April 2010, after a week of negotiations, Labor Premier David Bartlett agreed to appoint Greens leader, Nick McKim, as a Minister, along with Greens member for Denison, Cassy O'Connor, as cabinet secretary.^[26]

On 4 May, the Greens nominated Tim Morris for the position of Deputy Speaker—a surprise for Labor who had nominated Brenton Best. With the support of the Liberals, Morris was elected with 15 votes to Best's 8.^[27]

On 5 May, the first day of sitting for the new parliament, the Liberals moved a motion of no-confidence against the Bartlett government, which was defeated by Labor and the Greens.^[28]

See also

• Candidates of the Tasmanian state election, 2010
• Members of the Tasmanian House of Assembly, 2010–2014

Notes

External links

• Tasmanian Electoral Commission – 2010 House of Assembly elections

Elections and referendums in Tasmania
General elections	1856 1861 1862 1866 1871 1872 1877 1882 1886 1891 1893 1897 1900 1903 1906 1909 1912 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1941 1946 1948 1950 1955 1956 1959 1964 1969 1972 1976 1979 1982 1986 1989 1992 1996 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 next
Legislative Council elections	1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Referendums	1898 1899 1916 1968 1981